A new methodology, based on a subtle but significant increase in heat emissions over large areas of a volcano in the years before its eruption, can predict these events with enough margin in advance. This makes it possible to see that a volcano has reawakened, often long before the other signs appear.
The new method was developed using satellite data by scientists at NASA and the University of Alaska in Fairbanks.
Satellite data
For several types of volcanoes that have erupted in the past two decades, the study team analyzed 16 and a half years of radiant heat data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS). aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites.
Despite the differences between the volcanoes, the results were consistent: in the years before an eruption, the radiant surface temperature across much of the volcano rose about 1 degree Celsius above its normal state. It decreased after each eruption.
In particular, scientists believe that the increase in heat may result from the interaction between magma reservoirs and hydrothermal systems. As explained by the co-author from the study, Paul Lundgren from JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory):
Volcanoes are like a box of mixed chocolates: they may look similar, but inside there is a lot of variety between them and sometimes even within the same one. On top of that, only a few volcanoes are well monitored, and some of the most potentially dangerous volcanoes are the ones that erupt the least frequently, meaning historical records cannot be strictly relied upon.
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The news
This new method that detects signs of volcanic activity years before the eruptions
was originally published in
Xataka Science
by
Sergio Parra
.