Long-term immunity unlikely: 35 years of infection research suggests so

In a new study Published in Nature Medicine, researchers have studied four species of these seasonal coronaviruses over the past 35 years and have found that reinfection occurs frequently, about a year after the first episode.

While that doesn't necessarily say anything about the current global pandemic, it is not a good sign for hopes of long-term immunity in a population.

Immunity

Analyzing 513 serum samples collected since the 1980s from 10 healthy men living in Amsterdam, the researchers noted several spikes of antibodies related to coronaviruses. Each of these spikes was interpreted as a reinfection, and for the four seasonal coronaviruses studied, including HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-HKU1, the team found 3 to 17 infections per patient.

Some rare reinfections appeared as early as six months after the initial infection, but more commonly, they returned about a year later, 'indicating that protective immunity is short-lived.' To date, there are few confirmed cases of COVID-19 reinfection, so it is still too early to say how long acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may last.

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The mystery of immune people who do not have antibodies: testing negative in one of these tests does not mean that you do not have immunity

Looking at other coronaviruses is one of our best clues, and unfortunately, this 35-year study suggests that immunity for many coronavirus infections is not only temporary, it's short-lived. Besides, authors say reinfection may be a common feature of all human coronaviruses.

The blood samples, which were collected every 3 months before 1989 and every 6 months after (barring an unexplained six-year gap in the data), show that most coronavirus infections in Amsterdam occurred in winter. With the northern hemisphere now firmly in autumn, that is an extremely worrying result if the new findings are applied to the current global pandemic. A very dark winter may be awaiting us.

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What do we know about cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and the possibility of being immunized without having had the virus

It remains to be seen whether SARS-CoV-2 follows the same trend as other coronaviruses. But it appears that acquiring a lasting immune response from a vaccine could be difficult. We may need to receive regular updates, as we do with the seasonal flu.

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The news

Long-term immunity unlikely: 35 years of infection research suggests so

was originally published in

Xataka Science

by
Sergio Parra

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