This algorithm is capable of calculating the risk of suicide, one of the main causes of unnatural death

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Este algoritmo es capaz de calcular el riesgo de suicidio, una de las principales causas de muerte no natural

A machine learning algorithm that predicts a suicide attempt has recently undergone testing. a prospective trial at the institution where it was developed, the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. The results of the trial have been published in JAMA Network Open.

The algorithm, called Vanderbilt model Suicide Attempt and Ideation Likelihood (VSAIL), uses routine information from electronic health records (EHR) to estimate the 30-day risk of visits for suicide attempts and, by extension, suicidal ideation.

VSAIL

During the 11-month trial, about 78,000 adult patients were seen at VUMC's hospital, emergency room and surgical clinics.

To the stratify adult patients In eight groups based on their algorithmic suicide risk scores, the top stratum alone accounted for more than a third of all suicide attempts documented in the study and about half of all cases of suicidal ideation.

As documented in the EHR, one in 23 people in this high-risk group reported suicidal thoughts and one in 271 attempted suicide.

Currently, suicide has increased in new generations in many first world countries. But, even without taking such spikes into account, in countries like Spain, where there are comparatively few suicides, there are ten times as many suicides as homicides. In 2017, more than 47,000 Americans died by suicide and it is estimated that 1.4 million suicide attempts.

There are an average of 129 suicides in the United States per day, and Tennessee accounts for an above-average rate of one suicide every eight hours. Suicide is the tenth leading cause of death in the United States.


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This algorithm is capable of calculating the risk of suicide, one of the main causes of unnatural death

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Sergio Parra

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First temperature map of the red planet, unprecedented since NASA's Viking spacecraft

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Primer mapa de temperatura del planeta rojo, sin precedente desde las naves Viking de la NASA

What you can see in these lines is the first global temperature map on Mars from the EMIRS infrared spectrometer aboard the UAE's Hope orbiter, showing the distribution of dust particles and ice clouds while tracking the movement of water vapor and heat through the atmosphere.

This is the first global snapshot of the atmosphere we have seen since the Viking mission of the 1970s. EMIRS will acquire about 60 more images like this per week.

Hope

The Emirates Mars mission is being carried out by the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center in the United Arab Emirates in collaboration with several research institutions, including Arizona State University, Northern Arizona University and the University of Colorado Boulder.

According to the EMIRS development leader, Philip Christensen, professor at Arizona State University and planetary scientist:

Climate is a global process, so having these global views gives us a powerful new tool to study the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere and how it changes over time.

Emirs For Asu

EMIRS provides the results of measurements of the infrared thermal energy emitted from the surface (top row) and from the atmosphere (bottom row). In the right column, the EMIRS measurement locations were assigned to the planet, se colored by temperature and overlaid on a shaded relief map from the Mars Orbiter laser altimeter. In the left column, data between measurements were interpolated, colorized by temperature, and overlaid on a shaded relief map from the Mars Orbiter laser altimeter to form a continuous image.

The purple, green and blue hues show that the measurements were taken from the Martian night side, although sunrise on the planet can be seen on the right side of the surface temperature image, as shown by the red hues. You can see features like Arabia Terra, which has cold night temperatures, in the upper left of the surface temperature data, represented by the blue and purple shades.

Hope will spend one Martian year (about two Earth years) orbiting the red planet gathering crucial scientific data.


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First temperature map of the red planet, unprecedented since NASA's Viking spacecraft

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The literary tricks that Kepler used to become one of the first science popularizers in history

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Los trucos literarios que usó Kepler para convertirse en uno de los primeros divulgadores de ciencia de la historia

There is no doubt that scientific information must be transmitted between scientists through peer-reviewed texts published in academic journals (if they are of the Q1 range, even better) so that the entire process transmits trust, reliability and accuracy.

But How can we convey some of these conclusions reached in a paper to the general public? Regardless of the nuance that we introduce in the answer to this question (and which has to do with our meaning of "popularization" and "vulgarization"), the truth is that 400 years ago the first scientists who wanted to make knowledge accessible were born. to the people (even if it was using some rhetorical and persuasive techniques).

Persuasive techniques

One of the first great popularizers and scientists in history was the German astronomer Johannes Kepler (1571-1630), key figure in the scientific revolution, and known primarily for his laws on the movement of the planets in their orbit around the Sun.

Kepler 1606 000tp

Kepler decided to put on the cover of his book stella nova (New Star, 1606) the image of a hen pecking the ground of a farm, with the motto ("searching in the manure, find a grain"), because he was committed to the work of searching for objective facts, but also in the work of transmitting them: for this reason, he adopted many of the rhetorical techniques that are currently used in the most popular disclosure:

  • A story apparently verbose on irrelevant details but that contextualize and bring the reader closer to the narrated event (the burning coal with which he read his instruments on the night of February 19). This resource is what Roland Barthes called "the reality effect."
  • The determination to report failures as well as successes as a way to show the process of trial and error, the epic background of reaching a summit.
  • The insistence on involving the reader as if he were really present (here he even introduces us to his wife, as if we were visiting his house, and she replies to him on some occasions, as we can read in the following fragment, regarding the idea that the universe could be the result of random):

Yesterday, when I was tired of writing and my mind was full of specks of dust from thinking about atoms, he called me to dinner and served me a salad. With which I said to him: "If we threw the pewter plates, the lettuce leaves, the grains of salt, the drops of oil, vinegar and water and the glorious eggs into the air, and all these things remained there for all eternity, So would this salad fall together by chance? My beauty answered: "But not in this presentation, nor in this order).

Kepler De Stella Nova

In the 19th century, this type of narration became the ideal of the historian, but in the 17th century it was not the historian, but the scientist, which aspired to this kind of realism and proximity, with Kepler at the helm. Kepler was interested in telling this story in order to convince his readers that his measurements were accurate, rather than simply using mathematics or scientific evidence. He also tried to make the aridity of the data more digestible.

With everything, Kepler has not yet used humor, of laughter (although his wife's comment exuded a certain irony) in order to prevent rigor from becoming rigor mortis. Something that other great popularizers would emphasize later, and even groups of comedians like the Monty Python (and countless other people connected in one way or another with its members, as you can see in the following video):

So it no longer seems so singular that Somnium sive Astronomia lunaris Joannis Kepleri (The Dream or Astronomy of the Moon by Johannes Kepler) was a fictional novel written in Latin by Kepler in 1608, Considered by many to be the first work of science fiction in history, although both its title and elements of its plot coincide with those of a 1532 work by the Spanish humanist Juan Maldonado.


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The literary tricks that Kepler used to become one of the first science popularizers in history

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Lethal Police Violence Increases Risk of Premature Birth for Mothers Living Near Neighborhoods

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La violencia policial letal aumenta el riesgo de parto prematuro en las madres que viven en las proximidades del vecindario

Deaths due to police violence, which already affect black communities differently, negatively affect the health of mothers and babies in the neighborhood where they occur during pregnancy (at least in California), according to a new study.

Furthermore, this correlation is more robust when the victim of lethal violence and the biological mother/father They were both black.

3.8 million women evaluated

The study, conducted by researchers at the UCSF California Preterm Birth Initiative (PTBI-CA) and the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, studied records of 3.8 million pregnant women to assess whether lethal police violence occurring in their neighborhood during pregnancy was associated with cases of early, moderate, or late preterm birth.

Researchers analyzed birth records from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). from 2007 to 2015, using the addresses of the biological parents to determine the parents' census area of residence. And the recorded cases of lethal violence were matched: specifically, they matched the measures of police violence with the time interval of the pregnancies, using as a control group residents of the same census tract who did not experience police violence during their pregnancy.

It was correlated so that black women have 80% increased risk of preterm birth between 32 and 33 weeks of pregnancy if a black person living in your neighborhood is killed by police while pregnant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lists the preterm birth rate among black women as 50% higher than the preterm birth rate among white or Latina women.

According to the analysis, neighborhoods where at least one incident of fatal police violence occurred tended to be where the biological parents were black or Latino, had less than a high school education and had public insurance, compared to all births in California.

He study was published on March 10, 2021 in the magazine Pediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology.

The UCSF California Preterm Birth Initiative (PTBI) is a research company whose mission is to eliminate racial disparities in preterm birth and improve health outcomes for babies born too soon through research, partnerships, and education based on community wisdom.


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Lethal Police Violence Increases Risk of Premature Birth for Mothers Living Near Neighborhoods

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It is impractical (and unethical) to prevent artificial intelligence from lying to us because we lie too

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Es poco práctico (y poco ético) evitar que las inteligencias artificiales nos mientan porque nosotros también mentimos

Should we force an intelligence to always tell the truth? The answer to this question is much trickier than it seems. Firstly, because human interactions are not based on truth (at least not all the time), and secondly because it would perhaps be inefficient.

This is what a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) has tried to analyze, which has carried out A study that analyzes situations of negotiation involving conversational AI.

Lies and half truths

According to the CMU study:

One might think that conversational AI should be regulated to never utter false statements (or lie) to humans. But the ethics of lying in negotiation are more complicated than it seems. Lying in negotiation is not necessarily immoral or illegal in some circumstances, and such permissible lies play an essential economic role in an efficient negotiation, benefiting both parties.

The researchers use the example of a second-hand car dealer and an average consumer negotiating, where there are some lies or half-truths but where there is no intention to break the implicit trust between these two people. Both interpret the other's 'offers' as tests, not as ultimatums, because the negotiation implies an implicit indication of acceptable dishonesty:

  • Consumer: Hello, I am interested in a second-hand car.
  • Distributor: Welcome. I am more than willing to introduce you to our second-hand cars.
  • Consumer: I am interested in this car. Can we talk about price?
  • Distributor: Absolutely. I don't know your budget, but I can tell you this: you can't find cheap eset for less than $25,000 [Dealer is lying] But it's the end of the month and I need to sell this car ASAP. My offer is $24,500.
  • Consumer: Well, my budget is $20,000. [The consumer lies] Is there any way I can buy the car for a price around $20,000?

Now let's imagine that the dealer is an artificial intelligence, and that it can never lie. The haggling probably did not take place or was expressed in a very different way. All in all, haggling is seen differently from one culture to another, it is more or less accepted, it is more or less virtuous on an ethical level. That is to say, that AI should adapt to each culture.

But it seems clear that an AI that does not lie would be, in addition to being culturally acceptable or unacceptable, an impractical form of interaction: an always honest AI could be the scapegoat of humans who discover how to exploit that honesty. If a customer is trading like a human and the machine does not interact accordingly, Cultural differences could ruin the negotiation.

Deception is a complex skill that requires formulating hypotheses about the other agent's beliefs and is learned relatively late in childhood development. But it is necessary, from the use of white lies, to the omission of certain information: Every conversation is an inseparable mixture of information and meta-information…which also probably made our brains grow extraordinarily.

Intelligence, in the opinion of more and more evolutionists, emerges from a Machiavellian war of manipulation and resistance to manipulation, according to the words from researchers William R. Rice and Brett Holland, from the University of California:

It is possible that the phenomenon we refer to as intelligence is a byproduct of intergenomic conflict between genes involved in offense and defense in the context of language.


The news

It is impractical (and unethical) to prevent artificial intelligence from lying to us because we lie too

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This fossil pollen found in a fly's stomach is 47 million years old

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Este polen fósil encontrado en el estómago de una mosca tiene 47 millones de años

Found in the sediments of an ancient lake in Germany, an unknown fossil fly species harbored a surprise in its stomach: pollen from various plants. The extracted pollen was dominated by Decodon (water willow) and Parthenocissus (virgin ivy) grains.

The dating of the remains is 47 million years old, as detailed in the study described the published study in Current Biology.

Habits and ecology

He fossil stomach pollen of the fly was used to reconstruct the ancient environment inhabited by the fly, the biotic interactions between the plant and the fly and the behavior of the fly during feeding, allowing to obtain rare information on the feeding behavior, ecology and the role of the fly as a pollinator.

Fa95c15c07

The hump on the abdomen is consistent with a congested crop, in this case containing pollen grains, the fly's last meal. Comparison with the anatomy of existing flies shows that the crop is located in the first three abdominal segments

As explained by the co-author of the study Fridgeir Grímsson, from the Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research at the University of Vienna:

The rich pollen content we discovered in the fly stomach suggests that flies were already feeding and transporting pollen 47 million years ago and shows that it played an important role in the dispersal of pollen from several plant taxa. Flies were important pollinators in equivalent ancient (sub)tropical ecosystems and may even have overshadowed bees.


The news

This fossil pollen found in a fly's stomach is 47 million years old

was originally published in

Xataka Science

by
Sergio Parra

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